I don't think foldables will become mainstream until this one thing changes

Summary

Overwhelmingly, the largest obstacle to foldable adoption is pricing — most people can’t justify spending over $1,000 on a phone, let alone $2,000.
Foldables also continue to have problems such as dust resistance, and finding use cases that make them indispensable rather than a luxury.
Phone makers need to work on bringing costs down, perhaps through economies of scale.

The foldable phone market is entering a new and interesting phase. Samsung’s latest flagship, the Galaxy Z Fold 7, seems to be a hit with reviewers, mostly because of how incredibly thin it is and because its front screen is comparable to any other smartphone, making it very convenient when you’re replying to texts or getting directions. That means Google will need to step up its game with the coming in August, if it wants any chance of growing market share. Apple, meanwhile, is rumored to be hurtling towards the 2026 launch of its first foldable iPhone, a product that’s poised to either draw more attention to the market, or signal that foldables may only ever be niche devices.

I do think foldables will enter the mainstream — but there are a few things holding the category back, including one that phone makers are going to be loath to undo. We may have to wait for economies of scale to do their work, as well as entirely new product categories.

I like my smartphones bright – here’s what you need to know about phone brightness

It’s nice to have the brightest screen possible, but you shouldn’t necessarily take advantage of it.

The hurdles to cross

Giant price tags are the biggest issue

The greatest obstacle is, of course, the sticker prices needed to turn a profit. The Z Fold 7 starts at $2,000, which is twice the cost of a Galaxy S25+, and nearly four times the Galaxy S24 FE. It’s completely unaffordable for the average American or Canadian, let alone people in countries like Brazil and India. And people who can afford one may need to jump through hoops to rationalize it by treating it as a replacement for both their phone and a tablet. Personally, I could think of better ways of spending that cash — $2,000 might get you a decent gaming PC or take you one step closer to a new home.

Even people who can afford one may need to jump through hoops to rationalize it.

There are cheaper foldables in the form of clamshell devices, but even the latest Motorola Razr models start at $700, and the Galaxy Z Flip 7 is $1,100. That’s a lot to ask, since the only advantages of a clamshell over a fixed-screen phone are portability and some half-folded functions, like real-time translation. The base Razr is $100 shy of a Pixel 9 or iPhone 16, which are arguably superior products outside of their screen tech.

The situation seems poised to get worse before it gets better. Apple is reportedly sparing no expense in eliminating creasing, which could push the base cost of its foldable over the $2,000 mark. I suspect Apple will do what it can to match the Z Fold 7 — but that still means that a tricked-out iPhone Fold could approach $2,500, as much as a 16-inch MacBook Pro.

I think I know why Apple is developing a MacBook with an iPhone chip

I’m not crazy on the idea, but there’s some logic to it.

Samsung’s foldables remain the standard for toughness, but that’s a problem. While both the Z Fold 7 and Flip 7 can safely be submersed in shallow water, the “4” in their IP48 rating means they can’t block any solid particles under 1mm. You could be in real trouble if you drop one of the foldables at the beach, or if you work in dusty environments like construction sites. That’s in contrast with most conventional phones, which are either dust-resistant or fully dustproof. Some, like the OnePlus 13, even have an IP69 rating, which means you can hose them down if you drop them in the mud.

In addition to dust, foldables have several other vulnerabilities, including their fragile internal screens. They’re inherently softer than other displays, which can lead not just to creasing, but dents and scratch marks caused by your fingernails or debris. The other flaw is their hinges — while they’re unlikely to break before you upgrade, there’s always the risk that the hinge will stress out prematurely, preventing your phone from closing properly.

Before you take your device for a swim, here’s the IP rating you actually need

It’s a bit of a trick question, but there is a minimum IP rating you should opt for.

As I mentioned, a book-style foldable can hypothetically replace a tablet, and both book and clamshell models have unique half-folded functions. But for people like me, these are just luxuries. I don’t need to translate conversations regularly, and I certainly don’t need the ability to shoot 50-megapixel selfies or text and watch YouTube simultaneously.

In other words, while the foldable experience can be superior, phone makers haven’t done a satisfying job at selling us on it. Too often, it feels like novelty for novelty’s sake, instead of an unmissable step forward in smartphone evolution.

How I keep my phone protected against stingrays (not that kind)

It’s an area where Android devices seem to be ahead of iPhones.

How soon will the industry leap these hurdles?

Don’t hold your breath

It seems unlikely that prices will be dealt with anytime soon. Samsung hiked the cost of the Galaxy Z Fold 7 over the Z Fold 6, and the foldable iPhone is still over a year away. Unless Apple pulls off the coup of the decade, it will be at least a couple of years before phone makers even consider bringing prices closer to parity with candybar phones. The Trump administration’s trade war doesn’t show any signs of letting up either.

I wouldn’t be surprised if foldables remain niche until the 2030s.

If there’s any hope, it’s in parts costs coming down through mass production and refined manufacturing technology. That’s why you can find features like OLED panels and 50-megapixel cameras on budget phones — flagship devices helped fund the necessary infrastructure. But it can often take many years for the best features to trickle down, so I wouldn’t be surprised if foldables remain niche until the 2030s.

That’s assuming smartphones remain relevant enough for anyone to care. Apple, Google, Meta, and Samsung are all making a heavy push into augmented reality glasses, which by 2030 could be good enough to replace smartphones. At that point, an 8-inch screen might seem trivial when you can project an 80-inch one — and without a hinge, dust and water resistance will probably be taken for granted. There may be no choice but to drop foldable prices in order to prop up sales.